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Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners
Forecasting An Appraisal for PolicyMakers and Planners Author:William Ascher Energy needs...oil supplies...inflation rates...the demand for new homes...in concerns like these, forecasting plays a crucial role. Forecasts not only determine how billions of dollars will be spent by also commit national policies far into the future; yet, no one really knows how to judge the reliability of forecasts. In this innovative study,... more » William Ascher examines the records of expert forecasting of national trends in population, economics, energy, transportation, and technology over a fifty-year period. The results help to identify both the accuracies and hidden biases of forecasting techniques, information that should be of vital interest to all policy-makers and planners.« less